Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Ascent Utrecht
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.1% | 12 | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 43.0% | -3.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 11.4% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.3% | +3.9 |
| Slimes | 9.6% | 8 | 3-1-4 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 52.0% | +1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.4% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 37.4% | -8.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.6% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 58.2% | +4.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.6% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 70.2% | +10.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.0% | -16.3 |
| Water Allies | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.8% | -24.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Water Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.7% | +26.8 |
| Wind Cats | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.4 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Tonoris | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.2 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Penumbral Waltz. Losers more often ran: Dusklight Communion, Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Scatter Essence.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavenly Guide | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Betraying Blade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orchestrated Seizure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sharpen Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |